In its election manifesto, RSP pledged to pursue “balanced and dynamic diplomacy” with both neighbours, emphasising economic cooperation, cross-border connectivity and trade while transforming Nepal from a “buffer state into a vibrant bridge”.
“Our relations with our neighbours and other countries will be based broadly on the national interests of Nepal,” Shishir Khanal, an RSP leader and newly elected parliamentarian, told This Week in Asia.
“We will focus on economic and development diplomacy, where we will build relationships for the economic growth of our country.”
RSP secured a landslide victory in last week’s poll, an unprecedented feat for a party that entered national politics only four years ago.
Voters frustrated with corruption and unstable governments – grievances that erupted into a youth uprising last September – largely rejected Nepal’s three traditional parties, clearing the way for 35-year-old rapper and engineer-turned politician Balendra Shah to become prime minister.
While Shah has not put out a detailed foreign policy doctrine, analysts say his public statements and the party’s campaign messaging suggest a nationalist approach that does not favour any single partner over another.
The former Kathmandu mayor has criticised Nepal’s overdependence on Delhi, banned a Bollywood film over a cultural dispute and used profanity against India, China and others in a now-deleted social media post.
Historical alignments
Huang Yunsong, deputy director of Sichuan University’s Institute of South Asian Studies, said RSP’s victory presented “structural opportunities” to strengthen China-Nepal relations. He added that the previous governments’ handling of relations with China, which involved policy fluctuations with power changes, “provided great food for thought for RSP to pursue a better and more effective engagement with Beijing”.
Though Nepal signed up to the initiative in 2017, none of the 10 projects have moved beyond planning. While Oli prioritised completing a major belt and road project in his constituency in eastern Nepal’s Jhapa, Shah did not mention it when campaigning in the same region, reflecting a sensitivity to the concerns of both neighbours.
Arpan Gelal, a research coordinator at the Kathmandu-based Centre for Social Innovation and Foreign Policy, said this could be an electoral rather than geopolitical calculation.
Jhapa’s China-Nepal Friendship Industrial Park is strategically sensitive as it is near the Siliguri Corridor, a vital link to India’s volatile northeast states.
“Previously, China had some leeway with Nepali communist leaders in the government, but that could take a back seat now with RSP,” said Gelal, who researches China, borderlines and geopolitics. “China needs to change its strategy – there has to be a shift in under-the-table negotiations that bypassed state mechanisms and become more transparent, working with the new government.”
He added that RSP would also uphold Nepal’s long-standing one-China policy while safeguarding security along the Tibetan border.
RSP’s Khanal said his party was committed to Nepal’s long-standing foreign policy commitments with China, but the new government would assess new China-funded projects based on their priorities through bilateral discussions.
Important partners
Both India and China were equally crucial to Nepal, said Kalyani Honrao, a Mumbai-based independent geopolitical analyst. While the Belt and Road Initiative could support Nepal’s economy through investment and job creation, one of RSP’s key campaign promises, India remains the primary source of trade and essential goods and fuel for landlocked Nepal.
“Nepal will not alienate itself from two important bilateral partners,” Honrao said. “The incoming government will adopt a balanced approach in its foreign policy. Addressing security challenges in the Siliguri Corridor will be crucial for India. Therefore, India will engage actively with the new Nepali leadership to maintain friendly ties.”
Nepal’s foreign policy, long shaped by a delicate balancing act between its two neighbours, is often viewed as a contest between India and China for influence. Domestic leaders have frequently aligned themselves with one or the other for political and personal gain.
But analysts say that such narratives can be risky.
“Excessive pro-China tendencies may lead to Indian intervention and political instability in Nepal, while uncontrolled anti-India sentiments will also increase regional frictions,” Huang said. “To maintain healthy relations with both China and India, the new RSP government can continue to have a balanced strategy.”
Gelal, however, said Nepal’s external affairs should move beyond balancing, which he called “an old idea in foreign policy”. Instead, the new government should focus on how to strategically benefit from its neighbour, he said.
“RSP doesn’t have the ideological or relationship baggage, unlike previous parties,” he said. “This is the time to dismantle the ‘pro’ and ‘anti’ narratives and make operational, logic- and interest-based [rather] than ideology-based policies. That would be the start of a new era for foreign policy in Nepal.”
